Feds/BOC Watcher — Will the Next Meeting Cut or Hold/Hike?

The 30-Second Read As of 2026-09-09 12:40 Toronto Static fallback View date → Full Calendar

Futures price the Fed to HIKE 25bp at 62% on Sep 16, and the data flow leans the same way. Read the two cards below and you are current.

🇺🇸 Fed · Sep 15-16 FOMC Decision in — · Wed 14:00 ET

HIKE 25bp 62% Fed funds futures
3.63% → 3.79%

Cut 0%Hold 38%Hike 62%

Second opinionPolymarket odds loading…

Data pull Hawkish +1.2 — data pulls toward a hike Cut −3BalancedHike +3

Biggest pullISM Services and Prices Reaccelerate hawkish 2.0 · vs ADP Employment Misses dovish 1.0

Next testUS PPI · Sep 10 08:30 · in —

🇨🇦 BOC · Oct 28 Decision + MPR Decision in — · Wed 09:45 ET

HIKE 25bp 60% CORRA futures · low confidence
2.25% → 2.40%

Cut 0%Hold 40%Hike 60%

ConfidenceLimited confidence — the quarterly futures contract spans two decisions, so this is a scenario estimate, not a single-meeting probability.

Second opinionPolymarket odds loading…

Data pull Hawkish +0.7 — data leans mildly hawkish Cut −3BalancedHike +3

Biggest pullBoC Flags Energy/Tariff Inflation hawkish 2.0 · vs Canada Employment Contracts dovish 2.0

Next testCanada CPI · Sep 14 08:30 · in —

03 / Rates · Feds/BOC Watcher

Feds/BOC Watcher Cut vs Hold/Hike — How Data Pulls the Next Decision

Left pulls toward a cut, right toward a hike, and the knot between them is the net. Each row is one driver: its weight, the takeaway, and the print behind it — click a row for the full reasoning. · Toronto time

🇺🇸 Fed · Sep 15-16 FOMC Futures → HIKE 70%

📊 Market-impliedas of 09-03 02:04

Cut 25bp

Hold

30%

Hike 25bp

70%

3.62% → 3.79% (+17bp) · CME Fed Funds futures proxy ↗

🎲 Polymarketindicative · Sep 3 open ↗

Cut 25bp

Hold

58%

Hike 25bp

41%

Pool Vol ~ $84.9M · Liq ~ $4.4M · live odds load automatically.

⚖ Split: futures lean HIKE 70% · Polymarket leans HOLD 58%.

2026-07-29: Held at 3.50-3.75%. 9-3 dissent: Hammack, Kashkari, Logan preferred +25bp hike. Warsh's Aug 28 Jackson Hole speech validated the hawks: 'predominant focus right now should be on prices'.

🇨🇦 BOC · Oct 28 Decision + MPR Futures → HIKE 60%

📊 Market-impliedas of 09-03 02:04

Cut 25bp

Hold

40%

Hike 25bp

60%

2.25% → 2.40% (+15bp) · CORRA futures (limited confidence) ↗

🎲 Polymarketindicative · Sep 3 open ↗

Cut 25bp

Hold

89%

Hike 25bp

Pool Vol ~ $48k · Liq ~ $9k · live odds load automatically.

⚖ Split: futures lean HIKE 60% · Polymarket leans HOLD 89%.

2026-09-02: Held at 2.25%. Overnight held at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit 2.20%); statement cited high energy prices, tariffs, tightened financial conditions, CPI near 3%.

How a driver is scored · weight 0–3, decayed by age

Weight Formula 0–3 base, 0.5 steps · effective = base × age decay · net = 3×diff/total (±3 scale)

Deviation actual vs forecast gap Importance CPI/GDP=High · PMI/Retail=Med-High Surprise vs consensus & vol Age decay ≤7d ×1 · 8–14d ×0.75 · 15–30d ×0.5 · >30d ×0.25

0 No impact 0.5–1 Light 1.5–2 Material 2.5 Strong 3 Decisive

🟢 Dovish Side 4 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Driver detail loads from the live snapshot — if this stays put, the data feed is unreachable.

Miss / retreat = dovish fuel. Sorted descending (top = strongest pull near center). Mean 1.5 normal, no 2.5+.

+3 Hike

−3 Cut

⚖️

Net +1.5 Hawk

Scale
= Net Diff
Hiking → +2 to +3

🔴 Hawkish Side 5 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Driver detail loads from the live snapshot — if this stays put, the data feed is unreachable.

Beat / up = hawkish fuel. Sorted descending, 2.0 is current peak (no 2.5+). Right 5 vs Left 4.

Fed Summary · Rope 56% Hawkish · Net +1.5 — Left 4 Weight 6.0 (2.0+1.5+1.5+1.0) vs Right 5 Weight 7.5 (2.0+2.0+1.5+1.5+1.0) · Mean 1.5 normal · No 2.5+ decisive · Net +1.5 hawk
Trigger left: Aug 26 Core PCE MoM ≤0.2% and Aug 27 Claims >240k → rope <50% dovish.
Trigger right: Core PCE ≥0.3% or Jackson Hole reaffirms 2% → rope >62%, Sep cut odds <50%.

30Y UST

5.27%

Forecast 4.80% · +47bp

Services PMI

56.8

Forecast 54.0 · beat +2.8

Mfg PMI

48.7

Forecast 49.5 · miss -0.8

🟢 Dovish Side 4 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Driver detail loads from the live snapshot — if this stays put, the data feed is unreachable.

Canada exports 19% of GDP to US, external miss pulls to cut. Sorted descending, mean 1.4 normal.

+3 Hike

−3 Cut

⚖️

Net 0.0 Balanced

Scale
= Net Diff
Hiking → +2 to +3

🔴 Hawkish Side 4 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Driver detail loads from the live snapshot — if this stays put, the data feed is unreachable.

Beat / high = BOC can wait. Sorted descending, mean 1.4 normal.

BOC Summary · Rope 50% Balanced · Net 0.0 — Left 4 Weight 5.5 (2.0+1.5+1.0+1.0) vs Right 4 Weight 5.5 (1.5+1.5+1.5+1.0) · Mean 1.4 normal · No 2.5+ · Balanced
Key variable: Aug 28 GDP and Sep 4 jobs, any miss flips dovish; if both beat, BOC follows Fed on hold to Oct.

Retail Jun Actual/Forecast

+0.6% / +0.2%

beat +0.4 · Hawk

WTI

87.1

Forecast 82 · beat

Unemployment

6.9%

Prior 6.8% · easing

Post-Meeting Market Check · Since 7/30 → 8/21 16:00 Toronto SPY 765.72 +0.41% Fri -1.43% w QQQ 713.44 +0.35% Fri -2.05% w XLU 42.77 -2.29% Fri XLF 57.48 +0.93% Fri XLE 63.64 +2.8% w TLT 82.05 -0.35% Fri GLD 423.36 +1.95% Fri · +5.5% w ZEB.TO 73.49 +0.45% Fri

04 / History Mirror

Same tug, what did they do?

Backtest with same mix (services strong vs mfg weak + tariffs/oil + long-end surge). Each row compares then vs now, hawk vs dove, and lesson for today.

🇺🇸Fed 2019 Mid-Cycle · 3 Insurance CutsSimilarity 86%

2018Q4–2019Q3 · Trade War 1.0 + Two-Speed Repeats

Metric	Then	Now 2026-08	Takeaway
ISM Mfg	47.8 Contraction	48.7 Contraction	Both miss
ISM Services	56.1 Expansion	56.8 Expansion	Both beat
Core PCE YoY	1.6% Mild	2.8% Sticky	Now more hawk
Tariffs	Steel 25% / Al 10%	Reciprocal 35% full	Now heavier
30Y	3.20% faded	5.33% blowout	Now more hawk
Claims	215k stable	228k rising	Now more dove

What they did: Fed hiked 4× to 2.50% in 2018 → then cut 3× 75bp in Jul/Sep/Oct 2019, 'global headwinds + mild inflation + insurance'.

Lesson: If Core PCE ≤2.8% and claims >240k, Fed likely replicates 2019 → one hold then insurance cuts; but inflation 120bp higher now needs services <54 to trigger.

🇺🇸Fed 2022–23 · Higher for LongerSimilarity 72% · Cautionary

2022Q2–2023Q3 · Stickiness Overwhelms

Metric	Then	Now	Diff
Services PMI	55.3 Expansion	56.8 Stronger	Stickier now
Core PCE	4.7% peak	2.8% easing	More dove now
WTI	93–120 surge	87.1 up	60% strength
Unemployment	3.5% low	4.3% easing	More dove now
30Y	4.3%→5.0%	5.27%→5.33%	Similar

What they did: Ignored mfg 46, hiked to 5.25–5.50% and held 14 months until services jobs & core PCE fell together.

Lesson: Hard hawk script. As long as Core PCE ≥3.0% and services jobs >54, Fed tolerates mfg recession, Sep cut odds 64%→<35%. Watch Aug 26 Core PCE & Sep 4 payrolls wages.

🇨🇦BOC 2018 Steel/Al · On HoldSimilarity 91%

2018-06 – 2019-12 · US Steel 25% / Al 10% + CA retaliation

Metric	Then	Now	Diff
Retail MoM	+0.45% beat +0.2%	+0.60% beat +0.2%	Stronger now
GDP Ann.	1.4% resilient	1.20% expected	Similar
Unemployment	5.8% tight	6.9% easing	More dove now
Household Debt/GDP	99%	102%	More sensitive
BOC Rate	1.75% peak	2.75% high	More room

What they did: Last hike Oct 2018 to 1.75% then on hold all 2019, 'trade uncertainty + debt sensitivity → wait'.

Lesson: Most similar now. BOC likely replicates 'hold for one' — retail beat lets it wait until Sep 8 tariff impact shows. Needs GDP ≤0.0% MoM or jobless ≥7.0% to cut.

🇨🇦BOC 2024 Front-Run · 200bp CutsSimilarity 68% · Dovish

2024-06 – 2025-03 · 200bp to 2.75%, 5 months ahead of Fed

Metric	Then	Now	Diff
GDP Ann.	0.9% near recession	1.20% expected resilient	More hawk now
Unemployment	6.8%→7.1%	6.9% steady	Similar
Core Inflation	2.7%→2.2% down	2.5% sticky	More hawk now
Fed Stance	5.25% hold	4.33% hawkish	Similar spread pressure
Trigger	3 straight job losses	Not yet	Not at threshold

What they did: Cut 5× starting Jun 2024, 5 months ahead of Fed, domestic debt + disinflation + jobs beat Fed sync.

Lesson: Fastest dovish script. Needs GDP consecutive misses + 2 straight job losses + core ≤2.3%, currently 1/3 met, ~25% odds.

Blended odds: Fed more like 2019 (insurance) 60% vs 2022 (higher longer) 40% mix; BOC more like 2018 on-hold 65% vs 2024 front-run 25% vs hike 10%. Rope left needs 'jobs/GDP consecutive misses', right needs 'Core PCE/CPI consecutive beats'.

05 / Calendar

Upcoming · Key Releases

Each row bold = key data, below shows forecast / prior and transmission with hawk/dove bias. Sorted by USD / CAD & HIGH first; countdown uses Toronto time.

Forecast = consensus · Toronto time

Time (Toronto)	Countdown	Country	Impact	Event · Forecast / Prior · Transmission	Bias
08-26 08:30 Toronto Wed 08:30 EDT	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Core PCE (MoM / YoY) — Fed's preferred inflation MoM Forecast 0.20% Prior 0.26%YoY Forecast 2.80% Prior 2.81% Transmission: >0.30% MoM → hawkish +5%; ≤0.20% → dovish reversal	High→Hawk Low→Dove
08-26 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	MED	GDP Annualized Q2 Second Revision Forecast 3.0% Initial 2.8% Transmission: If revised to 3.0%+ resilient hawk; if <2.5% dovish cross-check with mfg.	Weak→Dove
08-26 20:00 Toronto Wed evening EDT (08-27 00:00 UTC)	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Jackson Hole Symposium (8/27–29) Transmission: Reaffirm 2% + neutral rate up → hawkish +1.5, rope right 3–4 pts.	Hawkish→Hawk
08-27 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	MED	Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 230k Prior 228kContinuing 1.87M Prior 1.86M Transmission: >240k + continuing up → confirms -23k payrolls, dovish +1.2, rope left.	High→Dove
08-27 08:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	MED	CAD Current Account Forecast -4.5B CAD Prior -2.1B Transmission: Wider deficit → external demand weakening, dovish.	Worse→Dove
08-28 08:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	HIGH	CAD GDP (MoM / QoQ / Annualized) — BOC Decider MoM Jun +0.10% Prior +0.10%Annualized Q2 1.20% Prior 1.10% Transmission: MoM≥0.20% → hawkish confirmed; ≤0.0% → dovish flips.	Weak→Dove Strong→Hawk
08-28 10:00 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Fed Chair Warsh Debut Speech Transmission: If 'inflation risk remains' → hawkish +1.5; if 'dual mandate balance' → dovish +3.	Hawk→Hawk
08-28 10:00 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	NFP Annual Benchmark Revision Forecast -620k Last year -306k Transmission: How much were jobs overcounted past year? Revision >700k → labor already weak, dovish rope jumps 5 pts left.	Large down→Dove
08-28 10:00 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	MED	University of Michigan Sentiment · Final 1Y inflation Forecast 4.4% Prior 4.5%5Y inflation Forecast 3.0% Prior 3.1% Transmission: Expectations rising again would raise the hurdle for a September cut.	High→Hawk
09-01 09:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	MED	Canada Manufacturing PMI Forecast 48.5 Prior 49.0 Transmission: A deeper sub-50 reading would confirm export-order weakness and pull BOC dovish.	Low→Dove
09-04 08:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	HIGH	Canada Labour Force Survey Employment Forecast +10k Prior +8kJobless rate Forecast 6.9% Prior 6.9% Transmission: Job losses or unemployment at 7.0%+ would materially strengthen the BOC cut case.	Weak→Dove
09-04 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Payrolls NFP (Aug) — Last Jobs Before Sep Meeting New 155k Prior 114kJobless 4.20% Prior 4.30% Transmission: Decides 'forced cut'. <100k or jobless up → dovish locked.	Weak→Dove
09-11 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	CPI (YoY / MoM) — First Post-Tariff Test YoY 3.00% Prior 2.90%MoM 0.30% Prior 0.20% Transmission: If tariffs push CPI to 3.2%+, FOMC forced to 'skip Sep'.	High→Hawk
09-17 14:00 Toronto FOMC (18:00 UTC)	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	FOMC Decision + Dot Plot + Powell Presser — Final Settlement Transmission: Current rope's final settlement, sum of 8 HIGH beats/misses.	Showdown
09-17 09:45 Toronto BOC (13:45 UTC)	—	🇨🇦 CAD	HIGH	BOC Rate Decision — Spread Game Transmission: If Fed hawk + BOC dove together, CAD/USD pressured 1–2%.	Showdown