Feds/BOC Watcher — Will the Next Meeting Cut or Hold/Hike?

03 / Rates · Feds/BOC Watcher

Feds/BOC Watcher Cut vs Hold/Hike — How Data Pulls the Next Decision

Midline is the divide: Left = Dovish (Cut) · Right = Hawkish (Hold/Hike). Each card bold on top = key data, below Actual vs Forecast vs Prior highlights beat/miss, with transmission → why it pulls the rope. Higher cards = stronger pull. · Toronto time

As of 2026-08-24 08:00 Toronto Static fallback View date → Full Global Calendar

🇺🇸 Fed · 9/16–17 FOMC FEDWATCH

Market pricing Cut 25bp ~64% · Hold 34% · Hike 2% · 44% → Services beat → 52% → tariffs → 64%

Cut64% vs 36% Hold/Hike

Cut Hold HikeOIS 4.33% → Implied 4.08% (-25bp)

7/30 Minutes: 3 hawkish dissents against holding; 'services stickiness vs mfg/jobs cracks'. Post-meeting split: services 56.8 (strong) vs mfg 48.7 (weak), 30Y 5.27%→5.33% pricing 'higher for longer'.

🇨🇦 BOC · 9/17 Decision OIS

Market pricing Cut 25bp ~41% · Hold 54% · Hike 5% · Retail beat 52%→41%, tariffs price Hold hawkish

Cut41% vs 59% Hold/Hike

Cut Hold HikeOvernight 2.75% → Implied 2.61% (-14bp)

7/30 Statement: 'Trade uncertainty offsets domestic resilience'. Post: retail +0.6% (3× beat) vs Sep 8 reciprocal tariffs = 'hard data, soft outlook' tug, GDP 8/28 is decider.

Weight Formula 0–3, 0.5 steps · 3 = single event can flip the decision

Deviation actual vs forecast gap Importance CPI/GDP=High · PMI/Retail=Med-High Surprise vs consensus & vol

0 No impact 0.5–1 Light 1.5–2 Material 2.5 Strong 3 Decisive

Switch central bank · Weight 0–3 = Deviation×Importance×Surprise

🟢 Dovish Side 4 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Miss / retreat = dovish fuel. Sorted descending (top = strongest pull near center). Mean 1.5 normal, no 2.5+.

👷

Labor Market Softening · 2026-08-08 08:30 Toronto · Claims Thu 08:30 Toronto

Jul Payrolls Actual

-2.3k

Huge miss

Forecast

+8.0k

miss -10.3k

Prior (revised)

+14.7k→+9.3k

Rev -5.4k

Why dovish? Payrolls flipped from resilient to negative, prior two months revised down—labor demand inflection. Walmart -9% and Aug 27 claims (forecast 230k, prior 228k) above 240k would form 'labor deterioration → recession pricing → forced cuts'.

DOVISHHIGHCheck Aug 27 Claims

Weight 2.0

🏭

ISM Manufacturing PMI Falls Back to Contraction · 2026-08-21 10:00 Toronto (EDT) · ISM/S&P Global

Actual

48.7

Contraction

Forecast

49.5

miss -0.8

Prior

49.1

Pullback -0.4

Why dovish? PMI <50 with new orders 47.2 / employment 48.1 both contracting—demand & hiring freeze; prices paid 52.1 (prior 55.8) eases inflation. Manufacturing is the jobs leg—bigger crack, stronger insurance-cut case.

DOVISHHIGH · ISMXLI -3.4% w

Weight 1.5

🛒

Consumer & Industrial Chain Under Pressure · 2026-08-21 07:00 Toronto Earnings

Walmart Q2 Comp

3.8%

Guidance cut

Stock move

-9.1%

1-day

XLI Weekly

-3.4%

Lead laggard

Why dovish? Largest US retailer cut H2 guidance, tariff costs pass to consumers squeezing purchasing power; industrials also cut orders, starting earnings → jobs → consumption negative feedback, supporting 'slowdown needs easing'.

DOVISHMEDIUM

Weight 1.5

📉

Long-End Squeeze → Passive Tightening · 2026-08-14 13:00 Toronto · Close 2026-08-21 16:00 Toronto

30Y Close

5.27%

Elevated

Auction high

5.216%

2001 high

Prior 7/30

4.82%

+45bp

Why dovish? (inverse) Long-end blowout is hawkish per se, but XLU -7.6% MoM / TLT -0.35% Fri shows duration squeeze already tightened conditions. Fed would be forced to cut to offset this passive tightening.

DOVISH · InverseMEDIUM

Weight 1.0

Hawkish

+3 Certain Hike

+1.5 Hawkish

0 Balanced

-1.5 Dovish

-3 Certain Cut

⚖️

Net +1.5 Hawk

Dovish

Scale
= Net Diff
Hiking → +2 to +3

🔴 Hawkish Side 5 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Beat / up = hawkish fuel. Sorted descending, 2.0 is current peak (no 2.5+). Right 5 vs Left 4.

🔥

Services PMI Big Beat · 2026-08-21 09:45 Toronto · S&P Global

Actual

56.8

Accelerating

Forecast

54.0

beat +2.8

Prior

54.3

↑ +2.5

Why hawkish? Services = 73% of GDP, new orders 58.2 / employment 54.1 both strong—demand & wage stickiness remains; prices paid 59.6 points to core services inflation.

HAWKISHHIGH · S&P Global

Weight 2.0

⛓️

Tariff Inflation Shock · 2026-08-22 02:39 Toronto · CNBC/Carney

US on CA Tariff

35%

Dollar-for-dollar

Effective

9/08

24 days

1Y Inflation Exp

4.5%

Elevated

Why hawkish? Tariffs = direct imported inflation. Carney's dollar-for-dollar hits ~2.5% of GDP exposure. Michigan 1Y at 4.5% means CPI overshoot risk keeps Fed from cutting in Sep.

HAWKISHHIGH

Weight 2.0

🏦

Term Premium Blowout · 2026-08-14 13:00 Toronto 30Y Auction

30Y Auction

5.216%

2001 high

Intraday High

5.33%

+11.4bp

GLD Monthly

+13.8%

Fiscal hedge

Why hawkish? Long-end rise is fiscal term premium + credit worry, not growth. Gold +13.8% MoM votes 'UST no longer risk-free'.

HAWKISHMEDIUM

Weight 1.5

🛢️

Energy / Geopolitical Premium · 2026-08-21 14:30 Toronto WTI Close

WTI

87.1

WoW +4.1%

Brent

93.8

Near 94

XLE Weekly

+2.8%

Counter rally

Why hawkish? Oil feeds directly into headline CPI, WTI 87 → +0.3% MoM CPI pressure.

HAWKISHMEDIUM

Weight 1.0

💭

Inflation Expectations De-Anchoring · 2026-08-15 10:00 Toronto Michigan

1Y Exp Actual

4.5%

Elevated

Prior / Forecast

4.4% / 4.4%

beat +0.1

5Y Exp

3.1%

Prior 3.0%

Why hawkish? Near-term expectations at 4.5%, 5Y above 3% shows 'transitory' fails. Fed fears de-anchoring.

HAWKISHMEDIUM · Michigan

Weight 1.0

Fed Summary · Rope 56% Hawkish · Net +1.5 — Left 4 Weight 6.0 (2.0+1.5+1.5+1.0) vs Right 5 Weight 7.5 (2.0+2.0+1.5+1.5+1.0) · Mean 1.5 normal · No 2.5+ decisive · Net +1.5 hawk
Trigger left: Aug 26 Core PCE MoM ≤0.2% and Aug 27 Claims >240k → rope <50% dovish.
Trigger right: Core PCE ≥0.3% or Jackson Hole reaffirms 2% → rope >62%, Sep cut odds <50%.

30Y UST

5.27%

Forecast 4.80% · +47bp

Services PMI

56.8

Forecast 54.0 · beat +2.8

Mfg PMI

48.7

Forecast 49.5 · miss -0.8

🟢 Dovish Side 4 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Canada exports 19% of GDP to US, external miss pulls to cut. Sorted descending, mean 1.4 normal.

🌉

Sep 8 US-CA Reciprocal Tariffs Hit · 2026-08-22 02:39 Toronto · CNBC/Carney

CA Exports to US

19% GDP

High exposure

Tariff Scale

Dollar-for-dollar

Full coverage

BOC 7/30 Stance

Trade uncertainty

Key risk

Why dovish? Canada is the G7 most reliant on US demand—tariffs directly cut orders → industry & export jobs pressured. XLI -3.4% w already priced supply-chain break.

DOVISHHIGH

Weight 2.0

🏘️

Household Leverage & Mortgage Sensitivity · 2026-07-30 BOC MPR · Debt StatsCan 07-18 (Toronto)

Household Debt/GDP

102%

G7 highest

5Y Mortgage Share

~58%

25-26 rollover

XLU Proxy

-7.6% MoM

Rate pain

Why dovish? High leverage + short-duration mortgages (5-yr renewal) make Canadian households hypersensitive; US 30Y 5.3% spillover lifts Canadian mortgage rates.

DOVISHMEDIUM

Weight 1.5

📦

Global Manufacturing Pullback · 2026-08-21 10:00 Toronto · US ISM 48.7

US ISM Mfg

48.7

miss -0.8

CA PMI Forecast

48.5

Contraction

EU/KR Sync

5 falls

Synchronized

Why dovish? Canada exports industrial & resource goods, global PMI leads exports by 1–2 months. Mfg miss signals export & industrial jobs softening ahead.

DOVISHMEDIUM

Weight 1.0

💼

Labor Market Marginal Easing · 2026-07-30 BOC MPR · LFS 08-08 08:30 Toronto

Unemployment

6.9%

Above pre-COVID 6.0%

Wage Growth

3.2%

Prior 5.2% → easing

Job Vacancies

-8.2% YoY

Falling

Why dovish? BOC MPR already admits wages 5%+ → 3% range, slack emerging, wage-price spiral risk down—opens dovish door.

DOVISHLOW

Weight 1.0

Hawkish

+3 Certain Hike

+1.5 Hawkish

0 Balanced

-1.5 Dovish

-3 Certain Cut

⚖️

Net 0.0 Balanced

Dovish

Scale
= Net Diff
Hiking → +2 to +3

🔴 Hawkish Side 4 drivers · Sorted by Weight

Beat / high = BOC can wait. Sorted descending, mean 1.4 normal.

🛒

Retail Big Beat · 2026-08-21 08:30 Toronto · StatsCan

Actual MoM

+0.6%

beat +0.4

Forecast

+0.2%

3× beat

Prior

+0.1%

Accelerating

Why hold? 7 of 9 components up, services leading—consumption not collapsing at high rates. Retail is timeliest GDP proxy.

HAWKISHHIGH · StatsCan

Weight 1.5

🛢️

Energy Tailwind: WTI 87 Lifts Terms of Trade · 2026-08-21 14:30 Toronto · WTI Close

WTI

87.1

WoW +4.1%

XLE Weekly

+2.8%

Counter rally

Terms of Trade

Improving

Offsets disinflation

Why hold? Higher oil improves Canada's terms of trade & fiscal revenue, supports CAD, offsets imported disinflation.

HAWKISHMEDIUM

Weight 1.5

📊

GDP Resilience To Be Tested · 2026-08-28 08:30 Toronto · StatsCan

Forecast MoM

+0.1%

Flat

Prior MoM

+0.1%

—

Annualized Forecast

1.2%

Prior 1.1%

Why driver? Hardest domestic print before 9/17: MoM ≥0.2% & annualized ≥1.5% confirms 'resilient consumption' → hold weight +1.5; if ≤0.0%, dovish rope jumps 5–7 pts left.

HAWKISH/ Two-wayHIGH · 8/28

Weight 1.5

🇺🇸

US Stickiness Spillover · 2026-08-21 09:45 Toronto Services 56.8 · 30Y 5.27% sync

US Services PMI

56.8

beat +2.8

30Y UST

5.27%

Elevated

US-CA Spread

158bp

Widening

Why hold? If BOC cuts alone while Fed holds, CAD weakens → imported inflation rebounds.

HAWKISHMEDIUM

Weight 1.0

BOC Summary · Rope 50% Balanced · Net 0.0 — Left 4 Weight 5.5 (2.0+1.5+1.0+1.0) vs Right 4 Weight 5.5 (1.5+1.5+1.5+1.0) · Mean 1.4 normal · No 2.5+ · Balanced
Key variable: Aug 28 GDP and Sep 4 jobs, any miss flips dovish; if both beat, BOC follows Fed on hold to Oct.

Retail Jun Actual/Forecast

+0.6% / +0.2%

beat +0.4 · Hawk

WTI

87.1

Forecast 82 · beat

Unemployment

6.9%

Prior 6.8% · easing

04 / History Mirror

Same tug, what did they do?

Backtest with same mix (services strong vs mfg weak + tariffs/oil + long-end surge). Each row compares then vs now, hawk vs dove, and lesson for today.

🇺🇸Fed 2019 Mid-Cycle · 3 Insurance CutsSimilarity 86%

2018Q4–2019Q3 · Trade War 1.0 + Two-Speed Repeats

Metric	Then	Now 2026-08	Takeaway
ISM Mfg	47.8 Contraction	48.7 Contraction	Both miss
ISM Services	56.1 Expansion	56.8 Expansion	Both beat
Core PCE YoY	1.6% Mild	2.8% Sticky	Now more hawk
Tariffs	Steel 25% / Al 10%	Reciprocal 35% full	Now heavier
30Y	3.20% faded	5.33% blowout	Now more hawk
Claims	215k stable	228k rising	Now more dove

What they did: Fed hiked 4× to 2.50% in 2018 → then cut 3× 75bp in Jul/Sep/Oct 2019, 'global headwinds + mild inflation + insurance'.

Lesson: If Core PCE ≤2.8% and claims >240k, Fed likely replicates 2019 → one hold then insurance cuts; but inflation 120bp higher now needs services <54 to trigger.

🇺🇸Fed 2022–23 · Higher for LongerSimilarity 72% · Cautionary

2022Q2–2023Q3 · Stickiness Overwhelms

Metric	Then	Now	Diff
Services PMI	55.3 Expansion	56.8 Stronger	Stickier now
Core PCE	4.7% peak	2.8% easing	More dove now
WTI	93–120 surge	87.1 up	60% strength
Unemployment	3.5% low	4.3% easing	More dove now
30Y	4.3%→5.0%	5.27%→5.33%	Similar

What they did: Ignored mfg 46, hiked to 5.25–5.50% and held 14 months until services jobs & core PCE fell together.

Lesson: Hard hawk script. As long as Core PCE ≥3.0% and services jobs >54, Fed tolerates mfg recession, Sep cut odds 64%→<35%. Watch Aug 26 Core PCE & Sep 4 payrolls wages.

🇨🇦BOC 2018 Steel/Al · On HoldSimilarity 91%

2018-06 – 2019-12 · US Steel 25% / Al 10% + CA retaliation

Metric	Then	Now	Diff
Retail MoM	+0.45% beat +0.2%	+0.60% beat +0.2%	Stronger now
GDP Ann.	1.4% resilient	1.20% expected	Similar
Unemployment	5.8% tight	6.9% easing	More dove now
Household Debt/GDP	99%	102%	More sensitive
BOC Rate	1.75% peak	2.75% high	More room

What they did: Last hike Oct 2018 to 1.75% then on hold all 2019, 'trade uncertainty + debt sensitivity → wait'.

Lesson: Most similar now. BOC likely replicates 'hold for one' — retail beat lets it wait until Sep 8 tariff impact shows. Needs GDP ≤0.0% MoM or jobless ≥7.0% to cut.

🇨🇦BOC 2024 Front-Run · 200bp CutsSimilarity 68% · Dovish

2024-06 – 2025-03 · 200bp to 2.75%, 5 months ahead of Fed

Metric	Then	Now	Diff
GDP Ann.	0.9% near recession	1.20% expected resilient	More hawk now
Unemployment	6.8%→7.1%	6.9% steady	Similar
Core Inflation	2.7%→2.2% down	2.5% sticky	More hawk now
Fed Stance	5.25% hold	4.33% hawkish	Similar spread pressure
Trigger	3 straight job losses	Not yet	Not at threshold

What they did: Cut 5× starting Jun 2024, 5 months ahead of Fed, domestic debt + disinflation + jobs beat Fed sync.

Lesson: Fastest dovish script. Needs GDP consecutive misses + 2 straight job losses + core ≤2.3%, currently 1/3 met, ~25% odds.

Blended odds: Fed more like 2019 (insurance) 60% vs 2022 (higher longer) 40% mix; BOC more like 2018 on-hold 65% vs 2024 front-run 25% vs hike 10%. Rope left needs 'jobs/GDP consecutive misses', right needs 'Core PCE/CPI consecutive beats'.

05 / Calendar

Upcoming · Key Releases

Each row bold = key data, below shows forecast / prior and transmission with hawk/dove bias. Sorted by USD / CAD & HIGH first; countdown uses Toronto time.

Forecast = consensus · Toronto time

Time (Toronto)	Countdown	Country	Impact	Event · Forecast / Prior · Transmission	Bias
08-26 08:30 Toronto Wed 08:30 EDT	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Core PCE (MoM / YoY) — Fed's preferred inflation MoM Forecast 0.20% Prior 0.26%YoY Forecast 2.80% Prior 2.81% Transmission: >0.30% MoM → hawkish +5%; ≤0.20% → dovish reversal	High→Hawk Low→Dove
08-26 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	MED	GDP Annualized Q2 Second Revision Forecast 3.0% Initial 2.8% Transmission: If revised to 3.0%+ resilient hawk; if <2.5% dovish cross-check with mfg.	Weak→Dove
08-26 20:00 Toronto Wed evening EDT (08-27 00:00 UTC)	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Jackson Hole Symposium (8/27–29) Transmission: Reaffirm 2% + neutral rate up → hawkish +1.5, rope right 3–4 pts.	Hawkish→Hawk
08-27 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	MED	Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 230k Prior 228kContinuing 1.87M Prior 1.86M Transmission: >240k + continuing up → confirms -23k payrolls, dovish +1.2, rope left.	High→Dove
08-27 08:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	MED	CAD Current Account Forecast -4.5B CAD Prior -2.1B Transmission: Wider deficit → external demand weakening, dovish.	Worse→Dove
08-28 08:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	HIGH	CAD GDP (MoM / QoQ / Annualized) — BOC Decider MoM Jun +0.10% Prior +0.10%Annualized Q2 1.20% Prior 1.10% Transmission: MoM≥0.20% → hawkish confirmed; ≤0.0% → dovish flips.	Weak→Dove Strong→Hawk
08-28 10:00 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Fed Chair Warsh Debut Speech Transmission: If 'inflation risk remains' → hawkish +1.5; if 'dual mandate balance' → dovish +3.	Hawk→Hawk
08-28 10:00 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	NFP Annual Benchmark Revision Forecast -620k Last year -306k Transmission: How much were jobs overcounted past year? Revision >700k → labor already weak, dovish rope jumps 5 pts left.	Large down→Dove
08-28 10:00 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	MED	University of Michigan Sentiment · Final 1Y inflation Forecast 4.4% Prior 4.5%5Y inflation Forecast 3.0% Prior 3.1% Transmission: Expectations rising again would raise the hurdle for a September cut.	High→Hawk
09-01 09:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	MED	Canada Manufacturing PMI Forecast 48.5 Prior 49.0 Transmission: A deeper sub-50 reading would confirm export-order weakness and pull BOC dovish.	Low→Dove
09-04 08:30 Toronto	—	🇨🇦 CAD	HIGH	Canada Labour Force Survey Employment Forecast +10k Prior +8kJobless rate Forecast 6.9% Prior 6.9% Transmission: Job losses or unemployment at 7.0%+ would materially strengthen the BOC cut case.	Weak→Dove
09-04 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	Payrolls NFP (Aug) — Last Jobs Before Sep Meeting New 155k Prior 114kJobless 4.20% Prior 4.30% Transmission: Decides 'forced cut'. <100k or jobless up → dovish locked.	Weak→Dove
09-11 08:30 Toronto	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	CPI (YoY / MoM) — First Post-Tariff Test YoY 3.00% Prior 2.90%MoM 0.30% Prior 0.20% Transmission: If tariffs push CPI to 3.2%+, FOMC forced to 'skip Sep'.	High→Hawk
09-17 14:00 Toronto FOMC (18:00 UTC)	—	🇺🇸 USD	HIGH	FOMC Decision + Dot Plot + Powell Presser — Final Settlement Transmission: Current rope's final settlement, sum of 8 HIGH beats/misses.	Showdown
09-17 09:45 Toronto BOC (13:45 UTC)	—	🇨🇦 CAD	HIGH	BOC Rate Decision — Spread Game Transmission: If Fed hawk + BOC dove together, CAD/USD pressured 1–2%.	Showdown